2023 Presidency: Fitch Report Lists 4 Ways Atiku Can Still Win after Predicting Tinubu’s Victory
Ahead of the 2023 general election, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research recently predicted that the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, will win.
The report listed some reasons why Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will lose the election.
Why Atiku, Peter Obi will lose to Tinubu in 2023 – Fitch
Among others, the report cited Obi’s alleged lack of support in the Muslim north as the reason why he can’t win.
For Atiku, Obi’s growing popularity was projected to split the opposition votes at the expense of the PDP.
Even though the report done by a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating organisation, said Atiku is unlikely to pull it off, it went on to highlight the PDP presidential candidate’s “route to victory”:
1. Expand PDP’s votes in the southwest
For Atiku to win. Fitch stated that the PDP presidential candidate would have to get more votes in the southwest zone.
This will be difficult to achieve because the southwest is the “home base” of the APC presidential candidate, Tinubu.
2. Expand PDP’s votes in the northcentral
It will also be difficult for the PDP to expand its vote in the northcentral. Out of the six states in the zone, the PDP is only in charge of one (Benue), while the APC controls the remaining five.
Benue is also not certain for the PDP, as Governor Samuel Ortom recently threatened that the people of the state would not vote for Atiku.
3. Retain large majorities in the south-south
Retaining large majorities in the south-south should not have been difficult for the PDP. However, the Peter Obi factor makes the party’s chances uncertain.
4. Retain large majorities in the southeast
Southeast is also historically the PDP’s stronghold. However, Obi, a former governor of Anambra state, is from the zone.
This implies that it will be difficult, if not impossible, for the PDP to retain a large majority in the southeast.
Read Fitch’s report in part:
“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South-west and North-central states, while retaining large majorities in the South-south and South-east.
“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the South-south and South-east – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country.”
PDP crisis: Why I do not support call for Iyorchia Ayu’s removal – Atiku
Meanwhile, the PDP presidential candidate has said the call for the removal of the party’s national chairman, Dr Iyorchia Ayu, was ill-timed and counterproductive.
Atiku said this in an interview with the Voice of America (VOA), Hausa Service, in Washington DC.
The former vice president reiterated that he did not support the removal of the party’s chairman, as this was not a clever move on the eve of elections.